British Conservatives towards a comfortable majority in next month’s election

UNITED STATES (OBSERVATORY NEWS) — Conservatives led by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson are heading for a comfortable victory in next month’s election, according to a new poll released on Thursday amid media reports that the rival Labor Party is reshaping its strategy.

The YouGov poll showed late Wednesday that if elections were held now, the Conservatives would snatch 44 seats from the main opposition Labor Party to a comfortable 68-seat majority in the House of Commons.

The poll – the largest so far in the campaign to estimate the results based on the number of seats – uses a model that correctly predicted 93 percent of the seats in the last elections in 2017, according to “YouGov.”

Elections in Britain take place on December 12, with Johnson hoping for a majority capable of backing his plan to leave the European Union at the end of January.

The data showed greater shifts from Labor to the Conservatives in more pro-Brexit regions, especially in the north and center of the country.

Labor has pledged to hold a new referendum on Brexit. Although Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn has indicated he will remain neutral, many senior members of his team have said they will defend staying in the EU.

As expected, Chug Curtis, director of political research at YouGov, said, “The key thing that decides how much these constituencies move against Labor is how they voted in the 2016 EU (referendum) referendum.”

But the conservatives are trying not to be complacent about positive results.

Johnson’s adviser, who was behind the 2016 Brexit campaign, warned Dominic Cummings just hours before the YouGov poll was published that the competition was still hot.

“As someone who has worked on many campaigns, things are more difficult than they seem and there is a very real possibility that no party will win a majority,” he wrote in a blog for supporters of Brexit.

“Without a majority, the nightmare continues. The rest of the parliament will come together to prevent Brexit.”

– “Best performance since 1987” –

Johnson, who inherited a minority government in July, was unable to complete Brexit on October 31 due to opposition from parliament.

Johnson has vowed to bring his Brexit deal to lawmakers before Christmas if the Conservatives win the third election in four months in December.

He hopes it will be passed by parliament ahead of the next date for Britain to leave the European Union, set for January 31.

The YouGov poll predicts that the total number of conservative seats will rise to 359 out of 650 seats, compared to 211 for workers – a loss of 51 seats.

“In terms of seats, this will be the best performance for conservatives since 1987,” said the poll, which analyzed data including interviews with about 100,000 people.

The poll results gave little comfort to the smaller British parties all opposed to Brexit.

She predicted that the SNP would gain eight more seats, bringing the number of seats to 43. But the progress would be more modest for the Liberal Democrats (one more), while the nationalists in Wales would have four seats and the Green (green) advocates one.

Labor reshapes strategy

The Labor Party, whose polls have shown a decline for months, will refocus its campaign on constituencies that voted for Brexit in 2016, the BBC reported on Thursday.

More time will be given to the Labor deputies in favor of leaving the EU and more activists will be sent to the constituencies that voted for Brexit.

The media reports that the party will also stress that his plan to hold a new referendum is not an attempt to abolish Brexit but to give voters a real choice.

But it may be optimistic for workers in the YouGov census that they need only five percentage points to grab 30 seats the conservatives are expected to win, while other recent polls have shown that competition is generally closer.

The well-respected think tank, the Institute for Financial Studies, on Thursday criticized spending pledges by workers and conservatives alike.

The Labor Party has launched a massive program of public investment and nationalization, while the Conservatives have pledged to end a decade of austerity.

But the institute noted that neither party provided “credible” data in its election platform.


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