UNITED STATES, WASHINGTON (OBSERVATORY) — Two comments posted last week once again underscore the dangerous impasse that Iran and the United States have entered.
First, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, noted that maritime security would be in jeopardy if oil exports were at risk.
Secondly, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that sanctions could be imposed against any country that would help Iranian tanker Adrian Darya 1, who is returning to Iran via the Mediterranean Sea.
“Iran believes that the United States will not launch a full-scale military attack, since they are isolated in their actions against Iran by their allies in Europe and even in the UK. Iran believes that it can force the United States to conclude a new nuclear deal on new conditions providing for the removal of all sanctions, “a senior source close to the Iranian Oil Ministry added.
A couple of months ago, the United States seriously considered the possibility of conducting a full-scale military operation against Iran and were “98% ready” for such an attack, according to senior political sources in Washington and London.
“The remaining 2% depended on how people and equipment will be moved to attack positions, as well as how the technologies and software involved will be finalized,” one of them said. “At that moment, John Bolton influenced the president Trump, which meant that it would be necessary to move 120,000 troops to the Persian Gulf region in addition to the aircraft carrier group that was already in place.”
“However, at about the same time, some of the president’s long-standing personal advisers and senior CIA officials convinced him that this would turn out to be an absolute disaster militarily and economically, given the size of the Iranian armed forces and the area in which they are located, their ability to lead guerrilla war anywhere in the world by the military representatives of the “Hezbollah” and “Hamas”, – he added.
Now the United States is ambivalent on the one hand, the “hawks” such as Bolton and Vice President Mike pence, the last one in. toryh said: “The last time the world has missed an opportunity to confront the regime, this time things will be different,” Secretary Mike Pompeo supports this position..
He and other hawks continue to advocate a regime change in Iran, which is already happening, given the damage to its economy, popular protests are destroying the current power structures in the country, in particular the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). Because of this, in the past few weeks, the United States has stopped attempts to import oil from Iran, declaring the IRGC a foreign terrorist organization and imposing sanctions on 14 individuals and 17 legal entities associated with the Organization for Defense Innovation and Research of Iran (SPND).
High-level political sources in Washington emphasized that the SPND, working in conjunction with the IRGC, gained excellent experience in conducting nuclear weapons research under the guise of a number of rapidly changing front companies. They can freely work in the international business community, pretending to be engaged in legitimate entrepreneurial activities, providing traditional financial, credit and banking services.
On the other hand, Bolton and other “hawks” in the United States are confronted by some of the most senior figures in the US intelligence community. Dan Coates resigned as director of the U.S. National Intelligence – allegedly due to disagreements with other Trump officials across Russia and North Korea – shortly after he testified before the U.S. Senate Committee on the nuclear deal that there was no indication that Iran is trying to develop nuclear weapons, and that Tehran is complying with the agreement.
Another notable exception is the head of the CIA mission in Iran, Michael D’Andrea – The Dark Prince, known for his involvement in US counterterrorism operations after the September 11 attack. He now expresses concern about an open military strategy.
D’Andrea calls for dialogue with Iran’s leadership not affiliated with the IRGC. Iran can use quite powerful weapons in the war, including disrupting oil flows, undermining US plans in Iraq and Turkey by destabilizing the Kurdish population and increasing tensions between the US, China and Russia. They can also destroy US relations with their NATO partners in Europe and increase direct attacks against the main US partner in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia, through their Hussite allies controlling the Yemeni capital and much of the north of the country.
“Trump is isolated in his position regarding the actions of Saudi Arabia in Yemen against the Hussites. As Iran knows, they are waging war directly on the sovereign territory of Saudi Arabia. They can carry out drones attacks on a large Shayba field, whose production is 1 million barrels of oil per day , and an oil refinery complex. So the Saudi-sponsored version is becoming more and more untenable, “an Iranian source said.
Iran hopes to take advantage. An embassy of the Hussites has been opened in Tehran, with 25 employees. This happened after the unofficial appointment of Ibrahim Mohammed Mohammed al-Dailami as ambassador “from Yemen to Iran” according to media sources.
The Iranian strategy is based on isolating the United States from Europe. And recently, Great Britain vetoed the US “proposal” to detain the Iranian tanker Adrian Darya 1, which speaks of a deeper opposition of key European countries to the current US strategy towards Iran.
The situation was exacerbated by the recent revelation of former British Ambassador to the United States Sir Kim Darroch that Trump had withdrawn from a nuclear deal to refute the actions of former President Barack Obama. Trump’s team disputes this. However, Obama was not only the architect of the deal, but also a figure whom Trump despised since Obama ridiculed him at a dinner for correspondents at the White House in 2011. According to many reports, this became the main catalyst in Trump’s decision to run for president.
When rumors appeared that the US was about to withdraw from the nuclear deal, EU Foreign Minister Federica Mogherini said: “A nuclear deal is not a bilateral agreement, so no president can break it.” After the US withdrew from the agreement in May last year, the EU applied a blocking law prohibiting European companies from following US sanctions on Iran.
At the same time, Mogherini said that Brussels would not allow the nuclear deal with Tehran to die, adding: “We urge small and medium-sized enterprises to develop business in Iran.” German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel then added: “We must tell the Americans that their behavior on the Iran issue will force Europeans to side with Russia and China regarding the United States.” Shortly thereafter, the EU decided to create a trade exchange support tool (INSTEX), solving the problem of payments received from business between the EU and Iran.
This article is written and prepared by our foreign editors writing for OBSERVATORY NEWS from different countries around the world – material edited and published by OBSERVATORY staff in our newsroom.
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