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Coronavirus: 40% chance of pandemic (and global recession)

UNITED STATES (OBSERVATORY NEWS) — New Coronavirus Cases Outside China Now Exceeding China’s Daily Count, Chances of Epidemic Turning to Pandemic Doubled from 20% to 40%, Moody’s Report Analytics yesterday.

“Our previous assumption that the virus will be contained in China has been too optimistic, and the chances of a pandemic are increasing,” wrote economists at Moody’s.

They had previously predicted a 20% probability of a pandemic, which is defined by the World Health Organization as “the global spread of a new disease”.

The cumulative number of confirmed cases of this new disease, also known as COVID-19, has exceeded 80,000 worldwide, according to the latest available data.

China remains the country with the highest number of cases, but in recent days there has been an increasing number of new cases outside the continent, especially in South Korea, Italy and Iran.

“The South Korean cases, combined with the spread of new cases in Italy and Iran, indicate that while the spread in China has slowed, the virus spreads quickly outside of China. And the ease with which it spreads spread could bode well for China as workers return to work and stores and restaurants begin to reopen,” said the Moody’s report.

Moody’s also warned that a pandemic would cause a global and US recession in the first half of this year:

“The economy was already fragile before the onset of the pandemic and vulnerable to anything that did not fit the scenario. The COVID-19 is very far from the scenario,” said the agency’s economists.

“The COVID-19 coronavirus came out of nowhere. It could be what economists call a black swan – a rare and inherently unpredictable event with serious consequences,” they added.


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