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Coronavirus: fears for global spread growth

UNITED STATES (OBSERVATORY NEWS) — Hong Kong authorities said on Tuesday the death of a patient who contracted 2019-nCoV coronavirus, the second fatal case recorded outside mainland China, where the epidemic caused 425 dead.

If the Chinese markets have erased part of their heavy losses from the previous day on Tuesday while the European stock markets were moving in the green in the middle of the day, fears about the impact on global growth of the measures implemented to try to curb the spread of the epidemic has not dissipated.

The local executive of Macau, the world’s largest gambling center, has asked casino operators active in the former Portuguese colony to stop operating their establishments for two weeks in an attempt to curb the spread of the virus.

Another announcement fueling concerns about the economic impact of the epidemic: Hyundai intends to gradually halt production in South Korea due to disruptions in its supply chain. It is the first car manufacturer affected outside of Chinese territory.

With the proliferation of measures to stem the spread of “Wuhan coronavirus” – confinement of several large Chinese cities, restrictions on travel and trade, growing isolation of China internationally – economic disruptions could take hold scale in China and therefore affect global economic growth.

Although it is still difficult to anticipate the time of the epidemic peak and the maximum extent that the spread of the virus will reach, economists at Barclays, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley estimate that this health crisis could cut global economic growth by up to ” at 0.3 points in 2020.

Bank Goldman Sachs expects a more limited impact, between -0.1 and -0.2 point, provided that China, as well as the other countries, take sufficiently energetic measures to drastically reduce the news rate infections by the end of March.

In terms of health, 64 new deaths were recorded in mainland China on Monday alone, mainly in the confined region of Hubei, where the epidemic is said to be part of a wild animal market in the regional capital Wuhan.

At the same time, more than 3,000 new cases of contamination have been identified by the Chinese authorities, which now report 20,438 people infected in mainland China.

The disease also continues to spread around the world. In addition to the 425 deaths recorded in mainland China, the death recorded on Tuesday in Hong Kong and that which occurred last week in the Philippines.

In the United States, a second case of human-to-human transmission to a person who has not visited China has been identified.

“We expect to see more cases of human-to-human transmission in the United States,” said Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Vaccination and Respiratory Disease in the United States Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

Outside mainland China, the number of people infected with the 2019-nCoV coronavirus stands at nearly 200, with cases recorded in 24 separate countries as well as in the special administrative regions of Hong Kong and Macao.

The World Health Organization (WHO) said on Tuesday that the 2019-nCoV coronavirus appeared “relatively stable”, with no evidence of a genetic mutation yet.

According to Dr. Sylvie Briand, director of the infectious risk management department of the WHO, “currently it is not a pandemic” and at this stage, the situation is that of a coronavirus epidemic with the form of multiple homes that the authorities are trying to extinguish one by one.

The WHO last week described this outbreak as a public health emergency of international concern.

Figures provided by Chinese authorities suggest that “Wuhan coronavirus” is much more contagious but significantly less deadly than the coronavirus that caused the SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) epidemic, which killed nearly 800 people. around the world in 2002-2003.

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