UNITED STATES, WASHINGTON (OBSERVATORY) — The US presidential election is about a year or more from now. Iran may become a key factor in the victory or loss of incumbent US President Donald Trump in this election.
Administrations are used to lying to the people, and this phenomenon is intensified especially before the elections. We have seen how Russian political elites quietly and leniently watched the attempts of former US presidential candidate Hillary Clinton to inflate the Rasha Gate bubble at the beginning, becoming a trump card to compete with rival Donald Trump. Those elections. But over time, as hysteria escalated and practical steps were taken in anti-Russian campaigns, the quiet and lenient smiles turned to astonishment, eventually leading to a nuclear arms race and sometimes even leading to a direct clash between Russia and the United States.
The main conclusion from Rasha Gate is that political elites in the United States have no taboos in what can easily be sacrificed beyond the borders of the United States to win power in Washington. To that end, all means, including the destruction of entire States and nuclear war, are permissible to achieve the goal of power. The war against Iraq in 2003, and before the war against Yugoslavia, “Rasha Gate” Now we can not look at the Iranian crisis in isolation from the presidential elections in the United States of America.
For now, for Donald Trump, there is no more important issue than the US presidential election. How could a possible war against Iran be reflected in those elections?
In the global economic downturn, the United States is the only island that continues to maintain (albeit declining) economic growth, among the “globalized West”. However, the situation is fragile, and all indications are that the recession will also include the United States next year. Moreover, more indicators are indicating that this will not be a slight decline, but a collapse similar to the 2008 economic crisis, and then the indicators of the economy will fall. Donald Trump’s chances of winning a presidential election below zero.
Therefore, any major shocks, such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz or the destruction of the infrastructure of Saudi oil facilities, can accelerate the global economic slowdown, which is unacceptable to Donald Trump, since the possibility of war with Iran implies the closure of the Strait and the destruction of facilities. We believe that the US missile defense systems purchased by Saudi Arabia are unable to protect their oil facilities.
So I risk saying that until the US economic situation remains positive and does not impede Trump’s re-election, the US president will try, as much as possible, to keep the country from being involved in any military operations against Iran.
We believe that the US foreign policy agenda is no longer the same priority for Trump lately, and that the trade war with China is no longer as ferocious as Donald Trump is facing the US central bank and the Federal Reserve, which now holds the key to the Oval Office in the White House. 2020.
The global economy is moving towards another crisis, and given the accumulated legacy of unresolved issues, it is likely to outweigh the 2008 crisis. Central banks around the world are collectively cutting interest rates on loans in an attempt to spur economic growth in vain. The ECB not only cut its interest rate on loans last week, but also launched its “quantitative easing” (QE) policy, under which the central bank will print un-covered money in an attempt to delay the crisis.
Today, Wednesday, September 18, the Federal Reserve meets to decide whether the United States will follow the Europeans’ lead. In other words, do it now or later, since it is inevitable anyway. Donald Trump vigorously wants this to happen before the election, and it is desirable that it happen now.
In August, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Director William Dudley called on the Federal Reserve to reject the policy of “quantitative easing” (QE), lower interest rates on loans, and any other stimulus measures to prevent Donald Trump’s re-election as president. At that time, the Fed announced its refusal to comply with any political motives, but the question now remains: Are actions today compatible with words?
Here we reach the possibility of reversing the situation 180 degrees. If the Fed did not make a decision until the end of the year (and that means today) to resume a broad stimulus to the US economy, we would often see a stock market crash and a decline in US GDP in the near future.
In this case, Donald Trump will lose the main playing card, which has always strengthened his position in the face of attacks by state institutions, which is the economic growth of the American era. His only way to stay in power would be to become the “president of war.” The war against Iran will shift from a potential threat to Trump to the only practical chance of re-election for a second term. The greater the scope and gravity of the war, the better, the possibility of invoking it in all economic difficulties, and even the possibility of postponing the presidential elections in the first place.
Iran is not the power of Russia or China, and the United States will ultimately prevail, no matter how huge the economic cost to the world. Indeed, the US has now achieved energy self-sufficiency, and the exit of Saudi and Iranian oil from the global market will hurt the interests of competitors, Europe and China. In the sense that the war for the United States will be tantamount to killing two birds with one stone.
So I think today is one of the most important days of the year. Let us see what decision the US Federal Reserve will take, which will determine the implications for the world in the future.
This article is written and prepared by our foreign editors writing for OBSERVATORY NEWS from different countries around the world – material edited and published by OBSERVATORY staff in our newsroom.
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