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Expert: US and Iran evade direct confrontation, but problems remain

UNITED STATES (OBSERVATORY NEWS) — The United States and Iran managed to get away from direct military confrontation, but the parties didn’t come to anything, including in the field of the JCPOA, so the immediate prospects for the development of the situation in the region can hardly be called good, says the director of the Franklin Roosevelt Foundation for the Study of the United States M. IN. Lomonosov Yuri Rogulev.

On Wednesday night, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced a retaliation operation for the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani . Land-to-ground missiles were fired from Iran at the Ein al-Assad base in western Iraq and the base in Erbil, where the US military contingent is located, who lead the international coalition against IS.

According to Washington, none of the US citizens were injured in the blow, only material damage was done.

US President Donald Trump made an appeal to the nation on Wednesday, where he said that Washington would limit itself to the introduction of new sanctions and the continuation of a policy of maximum pressure on Iran.

Media later reported that the U.S. Permanent Representative to the UN, Kelly Kraft, sent a letter to the UN Security Council, in which she said that the US was ready for negotiations with Iran without preconditions to reduce tensions in the region.

Rogulev in an interview with RIA Novosti noted that the United States did not need a big war with Iran.

“It was clear from the very beginning that the United States did not need a big war with Iran. Iran is not a small country and has powerful armed forces, aviation, the Navy, missile weapons. This is not an easy walk.

Moreover, Trump said that the United States is enough to fight and vice versa it is necessary to withdraw troops from the Middle East. This is not his concept,” Rogulev said.

The expert also recalled the other goals of the American president, which does not imply a war with Tehran. “Trump is running an election campaign. Any serious conflict with Iran will lead to the loss of US troops. It is not known what to get coffins from in the Middle East – this is a very bad background for the election campaign. Trump does not need this at all,” Rogulev emphasized.

In turn, Iran was forced to respond to the assassination of General Soleimani , the political scientist said. But on the other hand, the war with the Americans in the region, where the United States has a huge number of military bases, is also not included in Iran’s plans, Rogulev added. “They had to somehow answer, but they did it very carefully. This is actually a political response. The United States appreciated and understood this gesture, judging by the statements,” he said.

At the same time, the political scientist emphasizes that although a direct confrontation between the US and Iran was avoided, the immediate prospects for the development of the situation cannot be called good.

“The near future is not good. Because, having left the direct military confrontation, the parties have come to nothing. I mean that the international agreement with Iran (JCPOA – ed.) Has been destroyed, and the United States continues to instruct in the conclusion of a new agreement. So the tension there is not going anywhere,” said the expert.

Earlier, US President Donald Trump said that the guarantor countries should withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action for the Iranian Nuclear Program and work on a new agreement. Washington itself announced its withdrawal from the JCPOA on May 8, 2018.

In 2015, the Six (Great Britain, Germany, China, Russia, the USA, France) and Iran announced the achievement of the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan. The agreement provided for the lifting of sanctions in exchange for limiting Iran’s nuclear program.

The deal in its original form did not survive even three years: in May 2018, the United States announced a unilateral withdrawal from it and the restoration of stringent sanctions against the Islamic republic. Iran announced a phased reduction of its obligations under the agreement.

In early January 2020, Iran announced the abandonment of “the last key limitation in the nuclear deal regarding the number of centrifuges,” and said that now “there are no restrictions on working with Iran’s nuclear program.”

At the same time, Tehran intends to continue to cooperate with the IAEA, as before, and is ready to return to fulfilling its obligations in the event of lifting the sanctions and ensuring Tehran’s interests stipulated by the nuclear deal.

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