UNITED STATES (OBSERVATORY) – The chances of a recession in the United States in the next two years are one in three according to a survey of economists Reuters, who referred to the old business cycle, as well as rising interest rates and trade barriers.
The latest poll of more than 100 economists, conducted from May 16 to 24, showed that the US is forecast to grow by an average of 2.8% in 2018. This will be the fastest growth in three years, supported by the largest tax reform since the 1980s, ies.
But at the same time, short-term growth is forecasted, because next year the US economy will lose some momentum, and growth will average 2.5%, and in 2020 – 1.8%.
The median survey of 70 economists, when asked about the probability of a recession in the US over the next 12 months, showed a 15% probability.
But this probability increases to 31% over the next two years, while the most pessimistic forecast has a probability of 70%.
“The risk of a recession really increases in a year or in 2020, because then it will be possible to see that fiscal incentives will begin to disappear,” said Joseph Song, a senior US economist at BofAML.
“That is, when you return to a trend or potential growth that is below 2%, and if you get a negative shock – be it an ordinary oil shock or a dollar shock – then you will see a negative impact on growth,” he said. expert.
While forecasting turning points in economic cycles is not an easy task, recovering from the devastating financial crisis of 2007-2009, was unusually long, and the latest survey showed some signs that the current economic expansion will soon end.
An increasing number of economists expect that the Federal Reserve System (FRS) will begin to cut interest rates in 2020 compared to previous polls.