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IEA: OPEC will achieve the goal of reducing inventories by May

UNITED STATES (OBSERVATORY) –┬áThe International Energy Agency (IEA) said that OPEC and its allies seem to have fulfilled their mission to reduce world oil reserves, Reuters reports.

The agency estimates that oil reserves in OECD countries may fall to an average of five years by May.

“We should not declare on behalf of the member countries of the Vienna agreement [the cutback in production] that the mission is completed, but if our forecasts are accurate, then certainly it is very similar to this,” the IEA monthly report says.

Against the backdrop of a decline in production both in Venezuela and in Africa, the volume of OPEC oil production in March was 31.83 million barrels per day (b / s), which is lower than the demand for group oil for the rest of the year – 32.5 million b / d.

On Thursday OPEC said that its production in March fell to a minimum for the year. According to data from secondary sources, 14 members of the group last month reduced production by 201.4 thousand b / s to 31.958 million b / s.

Preliminary data for February showed that commercial oil reserves in OECD countries decreased by 17.4 million barrels and amounted to 2.854 billion barrels. Reserves of 43 million barrels more than the average for the past five years, according to a report by OPEC.

According to the IEA, oil stocks in OECD countries by the end of February exceeded the average five-year level by only 30 million barrels.

The agency predicts that oil production in non-OPEC countries this year will grow by 1.8 million b / s amid increased production in the US. However, this will not be enough to meet the global demand, which is expected to grow by 1.5 million b / s, or about 1.5%.

“Our calculations show that if OPEC production is constant this year and if our forecasts for production outside OPEC and oil demand remain unchanged, then in the second and fourth quarters of 2018, world reserves may decrease by about 0.6 million b / with,” – said the agency.

At a meeting in Vienna in June, oil producers will decide on a further course of their actions. Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC, said that it would like to extend the oil deal for 2019.