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Russia won without war

Military alliances, if they are suitable for something, are based on predictability and trust. NATO knew better days. What should happen so that its members, and especially Berlin, understand the seriousness of the situation and take action?

UNITED STATES (OBSERVATORY NEWS) — Those who have such friends do not need enemies. Since the rowdy from the White House gave the Kurds to be torn to pieces by the Bosporus, an extremely dangerous situation has developed in the Middle East, spreading far beyond the borders of Kurdistan with its unfortunate inhabitants.

After Trump and Erdogan made a deal over the phone, the American forces, located between Syria and Iraq, literally in a night left their positions, performing the role of a barrier. Interestingly, these two figures were aware of what they were doing?

Geopolitical revolution launched. Its consequences and side effects will be unclear for a long time, as well as its impact and borders that go far beyond the region. All this happened without any need – mainly so that Trump could please his Republican voters.

Earlier, America in the Middle East reliably defended its vital interests – from oil sources and shipping routes to the strategic security of the state of Israel – now, given the new facts, all this does not really matter. A strategy to the taste of the president, a war in the landlord manner, world politics in an experimental mode – this will not end well for anyone.

For NATO there is no state more important than the USA

The question remains open whether Erdogan’s Turkey is a member of NATO, in addition to its formal status, or whether its cynical demand for assistance in the fight against the Kurds strains the alliance politically and morally. But one thing is clear now. The North Atlantic Alliance will never be what it was in decades of the Cold War – a security factor for Europeans, an embodiment of intimidation of the enemy, and for the United States – a military infrastructure of their Atlantic position in the world.

A few months ago, the alliance extolled itself as the largest and most successful military alliance of all time. Even Trump, who initially indulged in isolationist doubts and criticized NATO allies for their financial stinginess, found words of praise. They seemed to mean that he was faithful to the traditions of his predecessors starting with Harry Truman.

But when the experienced military and diplomats, who for decades helped the Western alliance get around all the dangers, were informed that the president’s hard-to-see environment did not need their opinions and experience, it was an alarming signal. At the Baltic headquarters of the alliance, this was noted with great concern. In Berlin, on the other hand, they passed ears by, which was irresponsible.

Military alliances, if they are suitable for something, are based on predictability and trust, and, of course, in the first place, and above all, on their own interests. This is how NATO acted for a long time, overcoming all the difficulties, crises and wars that followed the collapse of Yugoslavia.

Flags of the 27 member countries are still fluttering in front of NATO headquarters on Leopold III Boulevard in Brussels. But now it is not clear what power and what kind of influence they personify. For the alliance, there is now no state more important than the United States.

Putin’s victory without war

And now what? It was more than symbolic when the Americans leaving, on the orders of their commander in chief, mainly special forces, met Russians moving in the opposite direction. Putin has achieved what wise commanders of all time could only dream of: he won without war.

In the region between the Baltic and the Black Sea, he has long drawn the dividing lines of his geopolitics. Now, after the decision of Donald Trump, no one and nothing — neither China, nor America, nor even NATO — will prevent Putin from continuing the “big game” for power, for the “near abroad” and for the Euro-Asian security zone. In 1989-1990, it seemed that Russia lost this game forever. Since then, the situation has changed radically.

But Putin risks overestimating his strength, which almost inevitably happens to everyone after a triumph. Donald Trump’s America can serve as a warning to him. Two decades ago, and she considered herself invincible and self-confident: after winning the Persian Gulf War in 1991, she was the herald and the self-proclaimed guardian of the “new world order”.

Then National Security Advisor Carter Zbigniew Brzezinski wrote a visionary book about America, The Sole Surviving Superpower. What remains of this can be seen today in an unsafe zone in southeastern Europe.

NATO knew better times. What else needs to happen for the governments of NATO countries, especially the helpless leadership in Berlin, to understand the seriousness of the situation and to act accordingly?

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