Study: Can the coronavirus outbreak be contained across the world?

UNITED STATES (OBSERVATORY NEWS) — Scientists working to limit the spread of the Corona virus across the world revealed Sunday that preventive measures can stop transmission of infection by at least 60%, and thus the epidemic can be limited. Scientists have proven that any person infected with the virus transmits it to between two and three people on average at the current infection rate, according to two separate scientific analyzes of this virus.

The new Corona virus baffled the scientists who used to conduct scientific research to limit its spread, and some concluded that the reason that the number of deaths on Saturday evening jumped to 41 by the lesion to more than 1,400 infected around the world, is due to the fact that anyone infected with the Corona virus transmits this The disease is between two and three people on average at the current infection rate, according to two separate scientific analyzes of this virus.

Efficient disease reduction measures

The scientists who conducted these studies said that the continued spread of the disease at this pace depends on the efficiency of measures to reduce it. But disease control measures must stop transmission of the infection in at least 60 percent of cases in order for the epidemic to be contained and the transmission to stop.

“It is not clear at this time whether this outbreak can be contained within China,” said Neil Ferguson, an infectious disease specialist at Imperial College in London who co-chaired one of the studies.

190,000 injured by February 4

The Ferguson team notes that 4,000 people in Wuhan have already contracted the virus by January 18 and that every patient transmits the infection to an average of two or three. “If the epidemic continues to spread continuously in Wuhan, we expect it to get much bigger by February 4,” the scientists said.

They estimated that there would be around 190,000 people infected with the disease in Wuhan, in central China, where the virus began to appear in December.

Raina McIntyre, head of the Biosecurity Research Program at the Kirby Institute at the University of New South Wales in Australia, said on Saturday that the breadth of infection in recent days was of great concern.

“The more the infection spreads to other regions of China, the greater the risk of it spreading internationally,” she said. Australia, a popular destination for visitors to China, confirmed the first four cases of the virus in travelers from China, all of whom visited Wuhan.

“What we need is to publish more data on risk factors, infection, incubation period, and epidemiology so that we can see what are the most appropriate measures to reduce disease,” MacIntyre said.


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