UNITED STATES (OBSERVATORY NEWS) — The two researchers from the University of Hong Kong said Monday that the government should take “strict” measures to restrict people’s movements to control the spread of the emerging corona virus, and the researchers estimated, based on mathematical models, that the number of infections exceeded forty thousand.
These scientists issued by the University of Hong Kong issued a warning after the spread of the virus, which led to 80 declared deaths in China.
And 2744 cases were officially announced in China, including a nine-month-old baby, while the number of suspected cases doubled within 24 hours to 6,000.
“We must prepare for the possibility of this extraordinary epidemic becoming a global pandemic,” said research group director Gabriel Leung. “Important and strict measures must be taken as soon as possible to limit population movements,” he added.
On Sunday, Chairman of the Chinese National Health Committee Ma Xiaoyi said that the incubation period for a new virus is up to two weeks, and that infection is possible during the incubation period, that is, even before symptoms of infection appear.
Based on the mathematical models for the spread of the virus, Leung and his team concluded that the true number of infections far exceeds the toll announced by the authorities that only includes officially declared cases.
Based on theoretical statistical data, Leung estimated at a press conference in Hong Kong Saturday that “the number of confirmed cases of symptoms should be in the range of 25 or 26 thousand on the first day of the Chinese New Year.”
He added that if the cases that are still in the incubation period, and for which the symptoms of the virus have not yet been shown, are not counted, “the number is approaching 44,000.”
Leung believed that the number of infections could double every six days, peaking in April and May in areas where the epidemic was already found, but he recognized the possibility of reducing the infection rate if effective public health measures were taken.
Wuhan and Hubei Province generally remain the epicenter of the disease. But cases have also been detected in a number of major Chinese cities, such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Canton.
“We expect to see permanent epidemic outposts in these major cities,” Leung said.
While he considered that the quarantine is “completely healthy”, the researcher considered that the measures “may not be sufficient to prevent the epidemic from leaking into other major cities.”
The Hong Kong University Medical Institute team is a WHO Collaborating Center for Communicable Disease Control.
This article is written and prepared by our foreign editors writing for OBSERVATORY NEWS from different countries around the world – material edited and published by OBSERVATORY staff in our newsroom.
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