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Trump’s foreign policy disaster for the US

UNITED STATES (OBSERVATORY NEWS) — The most fundamental, slowly looming geopolitical threat posed by President Trump’s foreign policy goes unnoticed. Trump’s erratic political aggression against China, despite a preliminary bargain, and his inconsistent policy toward Russia have led to deep concern in China, Russia, and other regions. As a result, China and Russia are drawing closer, while India has no choice but to slowly reach for both of them.

The rapprochement between the foreign and defense policies of China and Russia was explained by the fact that authoritarian regimes operate in both states. This is a very narrow version of the truth. These authoritarian regimes are very different because they have a very different history, culture and geographical location. China is a deeply institutionalized business-like system that has at its disposal a more developed economic and technological base than the Russian oligarchic regime, which is risk averse. The two countries are deeply suspicious of each other because of a total land border of 4,184 kilometers, which for centuries has been the subject of controversy and conflict (the last time in 1969).

However, in recent years, these two countries have participated in military exercises involving hundreds of thousands of troops and hundreds of aircraft, and which were more likely to work out large-scale maneuvers that would have great powers in conflict, rather than episodic military operations or anti-terrorism campaigns. .

Russia has turned a blind eye to Chinese military supplies to the former Soviet Central Asia, even though the Chinese “One Belt, One Way” initiative provides for energy supplies from these former Soviet republics to China. In addition, over the past six years, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping met 30 times, and also established strong cooperation in the field of energy, the aerospace industry, and so on. Many of these events preceded the election of Trump, but the pace of Sino-Russian cooperation has clearly accelerated since 2016.

Not only was China alarmed by Trump’s trade war – although he was somewhat reassured by a minor breakthrough – and by an unpredictable negotiation strategy, Russia cannot be confident in the US government, which is simultaneously applying sanctions and increasing the number of troops and armored vehicles in Eastern and Central Europe, even though the US president calls NATO an “obsolete” organization and lavishes indecently generous praises on Putin. China and Russia do not expect, and do not deserve friendly relations from the United States, but they deserve an honed consistency in US policy. And they don’t get it.

So, not the United States came closer to China to neutralize the Soviet Union, as it was during the Nixon-Kissinger era, or to Russia to neutralize China, but China and Russia became close to each other, partly to neutralize the US president, who is dangerous because it is impossible to understand using ordinary diplomatic language.

Always remember that US foreign policy is not only Washington’s actions abroad, but also the history of the president’s statements from the beginning to the end of his term. That’s why today’s moment is becoming so alarming for friends and for enemies.

India is a prime example. While the media recently focused on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s triumphant visit to Texas (and the natural gas deal that resulted from this visit), last month in Vladivostok, Modi and Putin signed 15 defense, energy and other areas. At the same time, Modi and Xi Jinping managed to resolve the border crisis in the Himalayas, which erupted in 2017. Between the two leaders, Modi and Xi Jinping, who are equally obsessed with self-discipline and determination, there is personal understanding. As the Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar put it in Beijing in August, repeating what he said about India and China in 2017: “At a time when the world is becoming more and more uncertain.

Just like in 1972, when President Richard Nixon traveled to Beijing, although the United States had many disagreements with China, India and China currently have disagreements about Pakistan, Kashmir, Belt and Road, their inconspicuous competition. in Nepal and Sri Lanka and so on. However, India and China believe that in these circumstances it is in their interest to stay as close to each other as possible.

The fact is that, given the confusion that reigns in Washington’s foreign policy, you should not take India’s turn to the United States as a matter of course or permanent. The rapprochement between the United States and India, which began under President George W. Bush and continued under President Barack Obama, took place against the backdrop of certain geopolitical circumstances that are now no longer relevant: rivalry between the United States and China, however, is relatively weak, restrained and predictable; and relations between China and Russia, which then rather coolly related to the idea of ​​partnership.

Now, under Trump, the rivalry between the United States and China is violent and unstable, and relations between China and Russia are becoming increasingly warmer. India, given its geographical proximity to both of these great Eurasian powers, cannot be completely independent of the influence of China and Russia, and given that relations between Beijing and Washington are generally deteriorating, it may have to gradually return to its traditions from the cold era. war and begin to balance between the great powers – this tradition has benefited India. It will be easy to implement, and New Delhi will not even have to admit that it happened.

Despite all the loud headlines about Trump’s arbitrariness, it is the quiet changes that occur somewhere abroad that can forever change the world. The sharp, zigzag changes in politics over the past few years have led to the fact that the word US has lost its former weight in the most important world capitals. And this weakening of confidence can have the most serious geopolitical consequences.

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