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Trump’s policy towards Iran is a signal for North Korea

UNITED STATES (OBSERVATORY) –┬áIn May, President Donald Trump appears to be ready to pull the US out of Iran’s nuclear deal. Experts warn that this could have a detrimental effect on the upcoming talks with North Korea on nuclear capabilities.

Trump condemned the deal with Iran – a landmark agreement initiated by the Obama administration, aimed at preventing Iran from developing nuclear capabilities in exchange for the abolition of economic sanctions. As French President Emmanuel Macron said on Tuesday in the White House, Trump called the agreement “a terrible, insane and ridiculous” deal.

But if Trump refuses the deal, Pyongyang will understand that the US can not be trusted and will deprive the president of the negotiating capacity, as he is trying to force the outcast state to conduct denuclearization, said former Assistant Secretary of State for Nonproliferation and Arms Control Robert Einhorn.

“Canceling the deal with Iran will have a negative impact on negotiations with North Korea. Why does Kim Jong-un have to take our word for it when we simply renounce the basic international agreement? “, Eichron stated.

Einhorn played a key role in shaping the Obama administration’s policy toward Iran’s nuclear program, acting as special adviser to the State Department on nonproliferation and arms control under former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

Einhorn agreed that some supporters of the agreement in Iran could exaggerate the impact of the cancellation of the agreement in negotiations with North Korea, but agreed that the termination of support under the agreement would greatly weaken Trump’s position in such discussions.

Mark Fitzpatrick of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Washington, expressed similar sentiments: “The logic is that if the US withdraws from a single nuclear deal, although the other party does it, North Korea will enter more uncertainly into another nuclear deal.”

The Trump administration said that it would not lift any of the tough economic sanctions against Pyongyang unless it agreed to conduct a full denuclearization. But North Korea would never agree to these conditions, Fitzpatrick said, if it still believed that the US posed a direct threat to the regime. North Korea has long argued that nuclear weapons are necessary to deter US aggression.

Some opponents of the Iranian deal said that the cancellation would force North Korea to thoroughly understand its nuclear weapons program. However, Fitzpatrick strongly disagrees with this.

“If the US abolishes the Iranian deal, North Korea will even more aggressively abandon its nuclear weapons,” he said.

Democrats in Congress follow the same views on this issue. In September, Democratic senator Chris Murphy said on Twitter: “Any hope of a deal with North Korea will melt if we abandon the deal with Iran. Nobody will believe that we will remain in the transaction that was signed. ”

More recently Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand noted on Twitter that the rejection of the historic agreement “destabilizes the already volatile region and makes it difficult to negotiate with North Korea.”

Last year, Kim Jong-un’s regime conducted many long-range missile tests. This led to the international community issuing harsh economic sanctions. But the position of the rogue state on this issue changed dramatically in 2018, and recently the regime announced the cessation of long-range missile tests and nuclear tests when it promised to close its nuclear test site. Trump left a false message on Twitter on Thursday, saying that North Korea agreed to denuclearization. However, Pyongyang has not yet delivered a clear message regarding its nuclear potential.

When on Tuesday he was asked to explain his position on denuclearization, Trump said that this would mean that North Korea would “get rid of its nuclear weapons.”

“If someone betrays a deal, they should know that they will face serious consequences,” Trump said.

On Tuesday, during his visit to Washington, Makron urged Trump to support the agreement with Iran, indicating a desire to review the terms of the deal and begin work on a “new agreement”.

“The Iranian deal is an important issue, but we need a much more general picture of security in the whole region. We want to preserve Iran and its presence in the region, “said Makron.

Meanwhile, on Tuesday the Iranian foreign minister said that Iran “will most likely” withdraw from the deal if the US leaves. Accordingly, Iranian President Hasan Ruhani warned that “the position of the Iranian government will be firm” if the US government does not fulfill its obligations.

“If someone leaves the deal, they should know that they will face serious consequences,” Rouhani said on Tuesday.