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US market. Trump launched a roller coaster

UNITED STATES, WASHINGTON (OBSERVATORY) — Friday’s passions caused by the confrontation between Washington and Beijing gave way to a wave of optimism. Donald Trump said that China is ready to make concessions. However, it is too early to talk about the imminent achievement of a full-blown trade deal.

US stock futures are growing up at the premarket. On Friday, key indices lost 2.5-3% due to increased risks of trade wars. Important resistance on the S&P 500 – 2950 points. The first reference point on the rollback may be the mark of 2800 points.

US and China

On Friday, Washington and Beijing exchanged mutual measures in the field of foreign trade. On Monday, the degree of tension subsided somewhat. The day before, Donald Trump said that the US authorities received two phone calls from representatives of the PRC leadership. “China wants to make a deal,” Bloomberg quoted Trump as saying. According to the American president, his team will return to the negotiating table.

The news inspired optimism among investors, but it was premature to talk about the imminent conclusion of a trade agreement. The chief editor of the Chinese publication Global Times tweeted that, according to his information, there were no telephone conversations at the highest level between the two countries, they are contacts at a technical level.

Risks

Slowing the global economy.The IFO business confidence index in Germany from the IFO in August fell to the lowest level since November 2012. The indicator dropped to 94.3 points from 95.8 points a month earlier. The expectations index in the near future fell to 91.3 points from 92.1 points.

In the US, orders for durable goods excluding the volatile transport component in July decreased by 0.4% compared to June (forecast: + 0.1%). Deliveries of capital goods excluding aircraft fell by 0.7%.

Positive factors

Prospects for the monetary policy of the Fed.During a speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium, Jerome Powell did not promise anything specific in terms of monetary incentives, but stated that the regulator is closely monitoring developments in the economy and is ready to act properly.

Apparently, in September the key rate will be reduced, as the regulator is not ready to disappoint market participants.

The further course of events will depend primarily on the relationship between the United States and China. Powell described the situation in the American economy as favorable.

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