UNITED STATES, WASHINGTON (OBSERVATORY) — US-Turkey relations have been deteriorating rapidly lately. On August 10, America announced a twofold increase in duties on aluminum and steel from Turkey, which led to a sharp drop in the Turkish lira, and also froze supplies to the republic of F-35 fighters in response to Ankara’s unwillingness to refuse to acquire the Russian S-400.
In response, the Turkish authorities called on the United States to end the “era of atrocities,” publicly announced the futility of economic pressure on Turkey, refused to join the sanctions against Russia, threatened to seek new allies and switch to settlements in national currency with major trading partners, including China, Russia , Iran and Ukraine. The crisis, however, concerns not only two countries. Details are in the material of the iz.ru portal.
Still, the economic crisis, no matter what they say about the market’s elements causing it, is actually not only a managed thing, but also created consciously by people and economies that are pursuing their interest. And the so-called “Turkish crisis” that has arisen in recent days is another confirmation of this.
Building chaos is always beneficial to someone who knows how to conduct and benefit from it. And the emergence of global soap bubbles in the form of uncontrollably developing booms of real estate, then computer production, or oil production in sizes that far exceed the needs of mankind is nothing more than a cover for the actions of a narrow group of people.
– Secret and overt threat –
US sanctions against Turkey and the imposition of duties on steel and aluminum imported from this country are an indicative flogging of President Erdogan and his state. Which, if you dig a little deeper, is not the main goal, but serves only as an action to cover up another idea. In fact, the blow was conceived as more global – with damage to the economies of the European Union (first of all) and those states that do not have strong currencies.
Donald Trump, despite the fact that for almost two years now he has held the highest political position in the United States, remains a businessman. Firmly assimilating the truth that the economy is primary, and everything else is the result of its successes or failures. What politicians will be able to extract from the results of economic activity, the current owner of the Oval Office is not very worried: he promised to return America to its former greatness and is engaged in fulfilling this promise in all ways available to him.
Turkey is one of the largest business partners of the European Union. Not only and not so much in terms of deliveries of Beco household appliances and tomatoes to EU countries, but (first of all) in terms of financial. Ankara is one of the main borrowers of funds from the European Community: 20% of all loans received by Turkey – in euros. The country has a very strong presence of European banks, which suffered significant losses due to the fall of the lira after Washington imposed anti-Turkish sanctions (up to 18% reduction – only during one Friday, August 10).
– Blow to Turkey. The European Union suffers –
According to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), cited by the Spanish edition of ABC , the financial institutions of the Iberian kingdom, with their € 80.898 billion spinning in the Turkish economy, rank first among investors from the eurozone. Spanish banks account for 36.2% of the total amount of foreign money working in the Anatolian state. French banks were in second place – they risk $ 35.145 billion (€ 30.826 billion). The third position in this ranking is in the Italian banking sector, with $ 18,489 billion (€ 16,213 billion).
Friday’s turbulence of the lira led to the fact that the value of shares of one of the most powerful banks in Spain – BBVA – fell by 5.16%. The mentioned “Spaniard” controls 49.85% of the capital of the second largest private bank in Turkey – Garanti Bankası.
The Italian Unicredit, which controls 81.9% of the funds of the Turkish bank Yapi Kredi through the intermediary firm Koc Financial Services, lost 4.73% of the value of its shares during the August 10 session. And the stock quotes of the French BNP Paribas fell 2.99% due to problems of the Turkish Turk Ekonomi Bankasi funded by him.
Expressing billiard slang, Trump got a cannon – a blow with a striking ball was aimed at one object, but the goal was another, which hit a rebound.
The echoes of the Turkish financial earthquake were felt not only in Europe. Although the states located far from the Old World, the problems got much less. So, the Indian rupee “moved out” to 69.62 per dollar, the New Zealand dollar for the first time in three years fell below the level of 0.66 for the American namesake, the Russian ruble broke the mark of 68 for $ 1, for the first time since 2016.
They covered the beast with red flags …
By the way, Turkey is a member of NATO, which has the second largest army in the alliance, the eternal US ally in the Middle East. It would seem that a politically correct maneuver would be on the part of Washington to support (read: buy) Ankara for the joint implementation of plans to contain Russia and Iran in Syria.
The key word in this phrase should be considered the term “politically.” And remember that Trump is primarily a businessman. Which he continues to remain in the second and third turn. So – nothing personal. And profit is above all. In any case, the NATO ally must live within its means, pay for itself and not be supported by someone. Turkish cannon is a lesson and a warning to other members of the alliance and the European Union in the first place: if you don’t pay, it will be the same with you or worse. America will regain its greatness at your expense.
“India, Indonesia, Thailand and other partners of the United States should then figure out for themselves what the loss of the privilege of duty-free access of their products to the US market could mean for them,” experts say Spanish El País.
Presumably, Trump hoped that Turkey would have nowhere to go: to improve its financial affairs (public debt 53.4% of GDP, inflation – 15%, budget deficit – more than 7%) Ankara will have to turn to the International Monetary Fund, where Washington – king and god. But…
“Logic indicates that Turkey should go to the IMF after the imposition of US sanctions and the collapse of the lira, but the question is whether Recep Tayyip Erdogan will agree to the conditions introduced by this financial institution,” admits Gabriela Santos, strategist at the American financial holding JPMorgan Chase.
… but he did not go into the trap
Most likely, Erdogan has already answered this question – the IMF says that Ankara has not even tried to contact the organization regarding the rescue operation.
“Instead of applying to the IMF, Turkey is moving closer to Russia and China in the expectation of joint energy projects with Moscow and obtaining loans from Beijing,” the French Le Monde notes. – Erdogan convenes a summit on Syria on September 7 in Istanbul, with the possible participation of Russia, Germany and France. The Turkish president expects to give the image of the anti-trump front he is forming to this summit. The latest tough US sanctions against Iran and Turkey have not led to anything other than strengthening Russian influence and increasing tensions.”
“Shackled by one chain, bound by one goal”
“The American president would not have been able to provide Russia with more diplomatic services, even if Putin himself had run the White House,” writes The British Independent . – Russia, not particularly straining, acquired two strong and powerful allies – Turkey and Iran, and this is perfectly suited to Russian interests. This is not the first time President Trump has endangered the security of America and the world. Well, if this is a tactical move, forcing Turkey to a reasonable dialogue, and then the damage from confrontation can be compensated. But if nothing like this follows, Trump will simply push Turkey away from NATO into Putin’s arms. The consequences can be truly catastrophic, especially for those friends that America still has in the Middle East.”
“If we consider separately Russia, Iran, Turkey – each of these states is inferior in the power of the United States. This statement is true even for China, – writes Mark Almond, director of the Oxford Institute for Crisis Research, on the pages of the British The Daily Telegraph . – But if you gather these countries into a fist, it may turn out that the States played against themselves. Let Iran and Turkey, even when paired, look unstable, like two drunks laying a sinusoid while moving along the sidewalk. But as soon as they find one or two teetotalers who are firmly on their feet, such a company becomes already menacingly strong.”
The author believes that “Erdogan has actually announced a geopolitical U-turn, promising that his country will make new friends and call Putin. Turkey previously flirted with the Kremlin, purchasing Russian S-400 systems and clearly not hiding its unwillingness to integrate into NATO’s air defense system.”
Turkey holds a strategically important position at the junction of Europe and Asia, bordering Russia, Iran, Iraq and Syria. And this is one of the reasons why Washington has always wanted Ankara to join NATO. “The almost simultaneous imposition by Trump of sanctions on Russia and Turkey simply pushes the latter two into each other’s arms,” Almond said.
Support for Turkey has already expressed Pakistan, which is dependent on Chinese investment. In addition, according to the publication mentioned above, “Islamabad received from Russia an offer of military assistance to replace the blocked American one. As a result, the team, including Turkey, Iran, Russia and China, can replenish with another figure. Having created the axis of the countries subjected to sanctions by America, Trump actually forces the states of the world to choose with whom they are, Almond writes. “But at the same time, the 45th president of the USA forgets the wise statement of the 16th president, Abraham Lincoln: wars should be waged one at a time.” When opponents gradually decrease the number of friends, they become more accommodating.”
But it seems that Donald Trump is not up to the study of the literary and political heritage of the former: he is busy with business. He creates crises and controls the chaos they provoke. Using these two tools, he intends to “make America great again” and make the rest of the world work to solve this problem. But while more often his actions lead to the rallying of opponents. Both within the state led by him, and beyond.
This article is written and prepared by our foreign editors writing for OBSERVATORY NEWS from different countries around the world – material edited and published by OBSERVATORY staff in our newsroom.
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