UNITED STATES (OBSERVATORY) – In 2016, there were two major geopolitical events: a referendum on the issue of Brexit and the victory of Republican Donald Trump in the US presidential election.
These events turned out to be akin to the most powerful earthquakes that led to all sorts of shocks, upheavals and unrest in the international political arena after the defeat of Nazism in 1945.
The result of the referendum in the UK and the victory of Donald Trump led to the fact that the world entered a period that many international relations experts called an era of extreme global tension so strong that it could lead to World War III. The state of international relations and tensions in the international political arena, along with the upheavals in the international geopolitical and economic systems after the Second World War, created an environment in which disagreements could have profound political consequences for the entire international community, stability and the further development of human history.
Now the world is very similar to Europe on the eve of the outbreak of the First World War.
In the summer of 2012 a new “cold war” began. Although the great historian Michael Burley in his excellent work “The best time: the worst time” notes that this is not so much a “cold war” as a transitional stage of historical proportions for the civilized world. The worst thing is that this new “cold war” may prove more deadly than the last one. Nevertheless, such a development of the situation is not necessary.
The new world order of 2012 means the end of the unipolarity period of the American superpower after the collapse of the USSR. American unipolar influence has definitely come to an end in terms of its ability to carry out such enterprises as the invasion of Iraq in 2003 or the invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, along with the damage caused by the World Financial Crisis of 2008. Now there was a huge shift of influence aside eastern world, especially in the economic and financial spheres, in emerging markets and new regional powers in the region. And the most important of them for the changes that occur in the Great Global Transition is one of the greatest countries and civilizations in the history of mankind: China.
The fundamental transformation in the media and information that the Internet and social media brought to the public sphere has completely changed the traditional process of political agitation, as well as the system of the media, business and leadership in general.
These technologies create a world of virtual reality in a system of globalization, but at the same time a more diffuse individualism amidst a flourishing inequality in the West and social decay, along with a serious problem in the Western Anglo-American democratic electoral model that prevailed in 1989. and in general, deeper problems of existential nihilism.
The global power struggle is taking place on many levels. This is due to the destruction of the world balance of power that prevailed since the end of World War II and the short-term intervention of the 1990s. President Trump redeveloped the traditional military-industrial complex. The more liberal democrats of the West Wing seemed to be on the rise after the resignation of Steve Bannon. The National Security Council appeared to be in good hands under the leadership of HR McMaster, while Rex Tillerson gave some hope for the post of head of the State Department, although some disturbing trends already appeared.
These moments in some sectors of the US foreign and defense policy, which the establishment of the national security establishment considers a new era of international relations, a new world order of 2012, a period of superpower competition. There is nothing more dangerous for the future peaceful development of the planet during this Great Transition than to pursue such a policy and put the US in such a position.
And even if China starts to overtake the US economically in the coming decades, America will continue to largely remain the number one economy in terms of total assets. In addition, this planet is too large for the two economies of superpowers operating in super-scales. China has become a power that has not yet existed in the history of mankind and it must once again play a unique, special and critical role on the world stage as a superpower, which it has been repeatedly throughout history, nevertheless it is still a developing country with all the problems , faced by a country with a population of 1.3 billion people. He has no great desire to usurp the United States as a global policeman and leader of the international order.
Now there is a great potential for a deep, comprehensive and truly lasting partnership based on mutual admiration, respect, cooperation and trust between Washington and Beijing. Acting together, they can bring tremendous benefits to the development of mankind. The work on the situation in North Korea, undertaken by China, is an excellent example of Chinese diplomacy, acting for the common good.
In the past few months, President Trump has again made changes in his administration, appointing John Bolton as national security adviser. It was very sensible to get rid of Tillerson and gain control over the Obama / Clinton wing of the State Department and the US National Security Community, replacing McMaster. However, Bolton is an extreme nationalist “hawk” and is associated with the neoconservative movement, which has serious consequences for the formation and influence of American foreign policy in the future.
The changes included a shift that is of more concern, with the more moderate figure of Gary Cohn of Goldman Sachs, who was president of the White House’s National Economic Council. Instead, the administration seems to be playing with the ridiculous ideas of the head of the US National Board of Trade, Peter Navarro, regarding a “trade war” with China, which would be absolutely unproductive and extremely harmful to the international order in this extremely vulnerable period of time.
The return of protectionism, like that observed in the 1920s and 1930s, could lead to the emergence of a new form of extreme totalitarianism in power. We hope that this issue, which is of global importance, will be resolved as calmly as possible. The new choice of President Trump regarding the CIA director, Gina Haspel, the first woman to occupy this position, looks like a very good choice.
In this new world order after 2012, the Asia-Pacific region is the most important theater of strategic importance. Like Eurasia, which includes the EU, Great Britain and Russia, the Atlantic arena, consisting of the United States and Canada, is largely interconnected through NATO’s North Atlantic alliance with Europe, as well as with the EU.
It remains to be hoped that the Trump administration will really be able to improve the relationship between the US and Russia in the final positive dynamic transition after 1991, based on mutual admiration, trust, cooperation in vital global national security interests such as the fight against proliferation ideology of jihadist Islamic fundamentalism and issues of nuclear security. However, nothing of what America is involved in, Europe and Russia will never be timely in terms of time.
Such large and strong countries as America and Russia simply need to establish a constructive dialogue for the benefit of common interests. President Obama wanted to restore relations with Moscow, President George W. Bush, and President Clinton aspired to do so. And none of them did it. Now, hopes for the presidency of Trump almost disappeared. Russian-American diplomatic relations and bilateral relations between the US and Russia are at the worst stage since the darkest days of the Cold War.
I would like to hope that the bright spot of Trump’s administration can be President Trump himself, who will better cope with the establishment of relations with President Vladimir Putin and uses these relations to improve US-Russian relations and, therefore, to achieve a global strategic position during the Great Transition on the World Stage. Russia is a great country and it deserves new relations with the West, especially new and more respectful, harmonious relations with America. Warm relations.
The Russian people and Russia itself deserve a much better treatment than the one that it received recently. Thus, the actions of the British government, Therese May, with respect to the planned malicious anti-Russian incident with the “poisoning of Fiddler” in Salisbury, England, were a disgraceful and irresponsible act of insanity by an increasingly inappropriate and useless prime minister who led the country in the midst of a collective nervous breakdown and shock on the wave of a referendum on the issue of Brexit, which does not fall in the responsibility of a serious responsible national player in the world arena.
In this new era of international relations in the new world order after 2012, a more respectful and constructive understanding and approach is required to take into account the interests of Russia, the legitimate interests of security and defense that were trampled at the end of the previous “cold war”.
Russia is and will remain a key power in the new world order of 2012, and, acting together, the leaders of America, China and Russia will be able to form a special strategic three of global leadership to enhance global security, understanding, stability and development. Thus, in the interests of the United States and the world, the Trump administration should not conduct military intervention in the Syrian civil war or, if it can not abandon it, participation should be limited. Attacks with chemical weapons have been barbarous over the past 7 years, this war has raged for 7 years already, and it will not stop with a belated US military intervention.
In addition, the British government knew that chemical weapons attacks continue in Syria, despite the diplomatic breakthrough of 2013 to end them. Why do we need to resolve this issue now, given that the British government has known this for over 3.5 years? A convenient time may have been in early 2011, but President Obama decided not to conduct an open military intervention, thereby creating a vacuum that was filled by the “Islamic state”. Russia in many ways had no choice but to side with the only remaining Middle Eastern ally. In addition, after the disastrous US and UK interventions in Iraq, and then in Libya, not to mention the ongoing catastrophic war in Afghanistan, the growth of Al Qaeda,
Attacks using chemical weapons are real nightmares, but in a war one can not rush with an assessment, as it was in the autumn of 2013, before the intervention was conducted. It would be better if the Russian side continued to exert its influence on Assad and allowed the end of the conflict, ending with the peace process. Both Russia and Israel must unite to cope with the situation in Syria, while the US should not get involved in another war in the Middle Eastern Arab Muslim country.
Here, rates are even higher. It would not be just a conflict connected with the Assad regime. The truly monstrous nature of this crisis is that potentially it can lead to a total war between America and Russia, which, in all likelihood, will lead to the Third World War. This situation is unthinkable, and it is very disturbing that we even reached this point in 2018, 27 years after the collapse of the USSR. If a war breaks out between America and Russia, then in the coming years everyone living on the planet will not be bothered.
That is what causes the most alarm in connection with the growth of anti-Russian xenophobia and hysteria in Great Britain under the influence of the Teresa May government and the almost total collapse in US-Russian relations.
How could we come to such a situation in the international community and the world system in 2018, given that there is a serious geopolitical possibility of a real war between America and Russia through a proxy war in Syria?
As the international political system has become so tense and unstable that after all the events of 1945-1989. Was this scenario again, this time, perhaps even more deadly?
Russia is not a source of evil on Earth. As President Trump said when asked about President Putin: “We have many killers, do you think that our country is innocent?” A broader dialogue is needed to unite Washington and Moscow between President C, President Putin and President Trump to create the “three leaders” “which can govern the world.The role of constructive partnership can be found in Russia’s relations with America and China.This is a worthy role for a great nation such as Russia.There are many opportunities and challenges that the world may encounter in this table AI, and, together, Washington, Beijing and Moscow can become the Grand Alliance, which will operate for the benefit of the entire planet at the beginning of the XXI century”.