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What will the US Army do if a “civil war” breaks out?

UNITED STATES, WASHINGTON (OBSERVATORY) — Daily Beast has just published an article by Patricia Ravalgi on the recent statements by the US President regarding the danger of a “civil war” in the United States.

Patricia Ravalgi spent 19 years in Washington and held various positions in intelligence at Congress and the FBI, as well as in the Department of Homeland Security (including counterterrorism and counterintelligence). She was also an analyst at CENTCOM.

The author writes that earlier this week, US President Donald Trump, commander-in-chief of the US Armed Forces, had tweeted that his removal would “provoke a civil war” that the country could never recover.

“Trump did not just say that his dismissal would result in a huge electoral defeat for Democrats, or even mass protests. He said “civil war”. That is, the Americans would take up arms against other Americans on his behalf, “says Ravalji.

She explains that in the modern era, civil wars are seen as the problem of developing countries, that is, conflicts that divide nations and societies where there are political divides, ethnic or religious. But what will the position of the US military be if something like this happens in the United States as President Trump predicted?

In reality, a look from the inside would indicate that the armed forces will be as divided as the rest of the country. “A divided country is a dangerous place for the US military,” says the author.

Patricia Ravalgi points out that the US political system is based on an important principle of the Constitution on “civil control over an un-politicized army”. But she believes that right-wing conspiracy theories and hateful political rhetoric have also developed in a sizeable part of the US military.

“Not so long ago, the majority of the US military showed up as followers of Republican” Reaganism “. But this type of republicanism has been replaced by trumpism first among civil republicans and is beginning to spread among members of the armed forces as well. From this point of view, even Ronald Reagan would be considered a socialist,” wrote.

Patricia Ravalgi adds that recent opinion polls show that Donald Trump’s popularity rating is proportionally higher among US Army veterans compared to citizens surveyed. But according to her experiences, she believes that Donald Trump is all that the US military should despise: “He fled military services, his character is marked by immorality. He is lazy, he is fat, he is uneducated, and for decades he has been the star of tabloids and reality shows,” writes the author.

During his election campaign in 2016, Trump said, “I know Daesh better than the generals. The generals do not know anything anymore. They are so void that their presence becomes embarrassing for our country. He even implicitly suggested that as president, he would put them all out.

Patricia Ravalgi adds: “Normally this would have dealt a severe blow to any election campaign and would have deprived the candidate of support from the military. But ultimately, this has become one of the highlights of his campaign.”

The author believes that even before his victory in the presidential election, Donald Trump was able to scare the generals of the US military, so that in order not to lose their positions, they decided to obey him and support him .

The author writes, “Today at CENTCOM, you can hear the high-ranking army generals repeat far right plot theories: Hillary has murdered a lot of people. Obama was a black Muslim from Kenya. The FBI and the CIA are corrupt. The media spread false information…”

The senior commanders of the US military seem to have accepted Trump’s idea that “the deep state” and the “false media” were planning a coup against him.

The author points out that at CENTCOM, she herself heard in the conversations of military analysts negative remarks about US military allies in NATO such as Canadians, British, French and Germans and against NATO in general.

However, returning officers from Arab countries in the southern Persian Gulf say that after Obama’s departure and Hillary Clinton’s electoral defeat, Arab leaders are happy and say there is “a new sheriff in the city.”

“The Arab countries of the Persian Gulf do not believe their eyes. No one disturbs them on the issue of human rights and they get US military assistance without any conditions. And if they played their cards well, they could even convince Trump to attack Iran militarily, ” wrote.

As for Iran, CENTCOM analysts believe that the Global Joint Action Plan (GAPP) prevented the US military from giving Iran the lesson it deserved.

“During the Cold War, intelligence analysts had spent their entire careers planning a war against the Soviet Union, a war that fortunately never happened. Many CENTCOM personnel are working similarly on a war against Iran. Military analysts have understood that a war against Iran is not a good idea, but senior CENTCOM commanders believe that Trump’s decision to withdraw from the PGAC was nothing short of a heroic act.”

In conclusion, Patricia Ravalgi writes: “The gap that has widened between the civilian world and the US military is getting deeper and deeper. Vietnam has created a huge cultural divide in the United States that Richard Nixon has successfully exploited for electoral victory. For the 2020 presidential elections, Trump wants to achieve what Nixon was finally unable to do. So far, he has avoided any responsibility in Congress. He managed to blur the lines between lies and truth in the minds of the American public. It has undermined the institutions that have ensured the security of the United States since the Second World War.”

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